Once again, at the start of the year, investors face decisions to position portfolios for the year: large or small? Value or Growth? Quality? Domestic or international? EM?
Most of last week has been about waiting on an event that didn’t cause any volatility in the end. US inflation remained hot in December but had not risen enough to change neither markets, nor the Fed’s perspective on monetary policy.
Based on the CFA level 2 Curriculum model of fundamentally justified P/E ratio – “price multiples in terms of fundamentals” – I have calculated a current fundamentally justified P/E ratio of S&P 500 index at the level of 15x
We all know that it is dangerous for investors to think and say “this time is different”. But once in a long while things can and do play out very differently from their historical patterns.
S&P 500 trades at a historically elevated valuation on both an aggregate and equal-weighted basis. Further valuation expansion is unlikely without a surprising further decline in yields.