This is from the latest BofA Fund Manager Survey. There is a lot of interesting stuff in there, but this one stood out. Most investors seem to be looking forward to tax cuts, BUT at the same time 75% expect them to widen the deficit.
Today's data show that the Consumer Price Index rose at a 2.7% annual rate in April. That's a faster rate than the Federal Reserve's target, but it's not crazy. Does this mean tariffs had no effect?
If the US-UK trade negotiation sets a precedent, and all tariffs go to 10% ex-China, it’s still troubling for S&P 500 profits, underscoring the importance of a fruitful negotiation this weekend.
I had not updated this one in a while, but the NY Fed's "Probability Of A Recession In The Next 12 Months" model pegs the odds of a nasty downturn at 60% (teal line on this chart).