US markets start to speculate if the next Fed move is up, not down - Bloomberg

By: Charles-Henry Monchau, CFA, CMT, CAIA

Chart of the day: Margin debt security dealers and brokers vs SP 500.

By: Andre Chelhot, CFA

On share buybacks and earnings inflation: Share buybacks are important because they raise the payout ratio for equities (i.e., the percentage of earnings which get returned to shareholders via dividends and share buybacks). A higher payout commands a higher valuation.

By: Jurrien Timmer

Rule of 20 (suggests market is fairly valued when P/E + CPI year/year equal 20) shows that S&P 500 is getting increasingly expensive.

By: Liz Ann Sonders

Bank credit has had a massive contraction when looking at percentage change over 1y. See previous contractions on the graph.

By: Ryan Lemand, PhD

The number of weekly increases in the S&P 500 is the most overextended it has been in over 50 years.

By: Otavio (Tavi) Costa

“While a big gap is still expected for 1Q, the [earnings] growth differential is expected to narrow meaningfully in 2Q (+20% for the Mag. 7 vs. +8% for the 493), close the gap in 3Q and reverse for the 493 in Q4.”

By: Daily Chartbook

"The share of households expecting their financial situation to improve over the next year just hit the highest levels since September [2020] and the second-highest since the start of COVID."

By: Daily Chartbook

Per NY Fed survey, 1-year inflation expectations fell in January to lowest since December 2020; 3-year expectations fell to lowest on record.

By: Liz Ann Sonders

Mag 7 - the most crowded trade ... practically no money left on the sidelines ...

By: Christof Leisinger