The US economy is seeing the highest boost in labor productivity in decades. While artificial intelligence could explain a small part of this, the main reason is a surge in business creation and economic dynamism.
Search interest in ESG investing dropped significantly as investors became disillusioned (disappointing price action, tighter monetary conditions +general hype and arguably a fair bit of miss-selling/greenwashing)
"The fear of missing out on upside gains (FOMO) exceeding the fear of downside may seem irrational. But it’s happening. Since 2023 US equities have exhibited higher volatility on days equities are up than on days they are down."
From the excellent research team at Gavekal, the above graph shows that small business hiring in the U.S. is going down and this is typically a leading indicator regarding U.S. unemployment rates.
Commercial real estate risk has changed over the last few years. Hotel and hospitality default risk rose following the lockdown period of the pandemic, but has fallen in recent years as people return to travel and vacation.
