Recent equity rotations reflect a downgrade to the market’s outlook for economic growth, but the prospect of Fed easing has left the S&P 500 near its all-time high.
In times where there are a lot of moving parts, and big uncertainty, it’s a good idea to back to basics. The real engine behind the market moves is corporate earnings growth.
"Bulls are leaving the building: II bears are rising as bulls drop to lowest level of 2024. S&P 500 has struggled to make sustained upside progress over the past decade when the Bull - Bear Spread has been less than 20%."
"Consensus projections for the 12-month forward EPS growth continue to rise, as the broader market (i.e. the S&P493 in the US) embarks on an earnings upcycle after returning to profits for the first time in six quarters this season."
Fun fact for today. From January 2021 through August 2024, the aggregate weekly paycheck for nonfarm employees (private nonfarm payroll times average weekly earnings) has increased by 29.3%.
In its latest survey, the NFIB revealed that a net 37% of firms reported lower earnings over the past three months, the worst reading since the Great Recession.