For the past two years, economists and market analysts have consistently warned of an impending US recession. Yield curve inversions, aggressive Fed hikes, tightening credit conditions, and elevated recession probabilities in economic models all pointed to a looming downturn.

By: Boris Kovacevic

Gold and the National Debt.

In 1971 the USA went off the Gold Standard.

By: Clive Thompson

I think most of you know I don't do politics, I only cover policies. I am selfishly excited about the coming week because we will start to find out what the true policies of the new administration will be (i.e., not just the campaign promises)

By: Francois Trahan, M2SD

If you own large-cap US index funds, please remember what you now own. It's not as diversified as you think.

By: Richard Archer, CFA, CFP, MBA

Money supply is growing again in the U.S. ... hmmm! I had not updated this one in a while, but since I am concerned about inflation getting a second act I thought it was a good time to revisit.

By: Francois Trahan, M2SD

The loss of breadth and momentum since mid-December has been notable to say the least. While the S&P 500 remains in an uptrend, the market has become narrow again, with only 24% of stocks above their 50-day moving average and only 29% of stocks outperforming the index. We are back to 2023’s market dynamic, it seems.

By: Jurrien Timmer

The approach to a 5-handle on the 10-year yield is causing the same agita for equities that it did in the fall of 2023 and throughout 2022. I expect that this will be an ongoing theme for 2025 as the term premium reverts to a more normal range of 100-150 bps.

By: Jurrien Timmer

Here's a simple (but useful) framework for figuring out when to go maximum growth vs defense in asset allocation

By: Topdown Charts

𝗠𝘆 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟱 𝗼𝘂𝘁𝗹𝗼𝗼𝗸 in a nutshell:

By: Jurrien Timmer

Equity Markets with Long-Term Return Potential  

By: Jan David Meyer, CFA