History shows us that when the risk-free asset (Treasuries, supposedly) becomes competitive with equities, stocks have to work harder to compete. This dynamic is explained by the Fed model, which compares the equity “P/E” to the bond P/E (below).

By: Jurrien Timmer

"41% of revenues in the S&P 500 come from abroad. If we have a recession in Europe and a continued slowdown in China, it will have a significant negative impact on earnings for S&P 500 companies."

By: Daily Chartbook

Everyone wants American assets.

This is a big turnaround from 2009, where deep in crisis the American financial system went right to the brink.

By: Topdown Charts

USA vs the World

If you buy an index fund on the MSCI World index (Developed markets), only about 25% of that fund will be invested in the "world."

By: Callum Thomas

For the past two years, economists and market analysts have consistently warned of an impending US recession. Yield curve inversions, aggressive Fed hikes, tightening credit conditions, and elevated recession probabilities in economic models all pointed to a looming downturn.

By: Boris Kovacevic

Gold and the National Debt.

In 1971 the USA went off the Gold Standard.

By: Clive Thompson

I think most of you know I don't do politics, I only cover policies. I am selfishly excited about the coming week because we will start to find out what the true policies of the new administration will be (i.e., not just the campaign promises)

By: Francois Trahan, M2SD

If you own large-cap US index funds, please remember what you now own. It's not as diversified as you think.

By: Richard Archer, CFA, CFP, MBA

Money supply is growing again in the U.S. ... hmmm! I had not updated this one in a while, but since I am concerned about inflation getting a second act I thought it was a good time to revisit.

By: Francois Trahan, M2SD

The loss of breadth and momentum since mid-December has been notable to say the least. While the S&P 500 remains in an uptrend, the market has become narrow again, with only 24% of stocks above their 50-day moving average and only 29% of stocks outperforming the index. We are back to 2023’s market dynamic, it seems.

By: Jurrien Timmer