* The top panel (black) is TLT's price
* The bottom panel (red) is TLT's cumulative flows
* The chart starts on March 16, 2022, when the Fed began hiking off zero.
Since that day, money has been pouring into TLT, chasing the return of yield, despite what the price (top panel) did.
These flows were relentless until they peaked on November 7, two days after the election. Now, money is fleeing "risk-off." Where is it going? The short answer is "risk-on," such as equities and crypto.
I see this as a market signal about fiscal policy under the Trump administration (tax cuts, deregulation, and tariffs). It is expected to be a massive boost to the economy and inflation. So, out of bonds and into risk assets.
Is this a realistic assessment of what is coming or part of an unsustainable market mania (both the big flow into "risk-on" and out of "risk-off?"
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The normal answer to my question above is that it is part of an unsustainable market move, probably based on unrealistic expectations.
But I suspect the answer I'll get is some version of "this time is different," arguing that this is the correct thing to do this time.