Money supply is growing again in the U.S. ... hmmm! I had not updated this one in a while, but since I am concerned about inflation getting a second act I thought it was a good time to revisit.

By: Francois Trahan, M2SD

The loss of breadth and momentum since mid-December has been notable to say the least. While the S&P 500 remains in an uptrend, the market has become narrow again, with only 24% of stocks above their 50-day moving average and only 29% of stocks outperforming the index. We are back to 2023’s market dynamic, it seems.

By: Jurrien Timmer

The approach to a 5-handle on the 10-year yield is causing the same agita for equities that it did in the fall of 2023 and throughout 2022. I expect that this will be an ongoing theme for 2025 as the term premium reverts to a more normal range of 100-150 bps.

By: Jurrien Timmer

Here's a simple (but useful) framework for figuring out when to go maximum growth vs defense in asset allocation

By: Topdown Charts

𝗠𝘆 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟱 𝗼𝘂𝘁𝗹𝗼𝗼𝗸 in a nutshell:

By: Jurrien Timmer

Equity Markets with Long-Term Return Potential  

By: Jan David Meyer, CFA

The U.S. consumer is incredibly bullish on the stock market. On the latest survey from the Conference board, which asks 3000 Americans about how the feel about thr stock market, 56.4% believe the market will be higher over the next 12 months.

By: Gustavo A. Cano

3.3% Ease & Frankfurt Fallout

By: Bruce Richards

The bond market is talking, and the Fed should listen.

Bond markets have staged quite an impressive sell-off over the last two weeks.

By: Alfonso Peccatiello

* The top panel (black) is TLT's price

* The bottom panel (red) is TLT's cumulative flows

* The chart starts on March 16, 2022, when the Fed began hiking off zero.

By: James Bianco