Bond market to Trump: Forget about tax cuts.

By: Rasmus Tarp Ulverman

This is from the latest BofA Fund Manager Survey. There is a lot of interesting stuff in there, but this one stood out. Most investors seem to be looking forward to tax cuts, BUT at the same time 75% expect them to widen the deficit.

By: Francois Trahan, M2SD

Today's data show that the Consumer Price Index rose at a 2.7% annual rate in April. That's a faster rate than the Federal Reserve's target, but it's not crazy. Does this mean tariffs had no effect?

By: Daniel Altman

I was in Beijing when the news of the temporary tariff detente filtered through. The reaction from my interlocutors was one of calm anticipation.

By: Professor Warwick Powell

Here is the EO outlining the changes in tariff policy for the next 90 days with China.

By: Deborah Elms

So the two countries in the red circle made a trade deal. Right.

By: Ryan Lemand, PhD

If the US-UK trade negotiation sets a precedent, and all tariffs go to 10% ex-China, it’s still troubling for S&P 500 profits, underscoring the importance of a fruitful negotiation this weekend.

By: Gina Martin Adams

BREAKING: Interest payments on US debt declined by -$13.5 billion in Q1 2025, to an annualized $1.11 trillion, the lowest since Q2 2024.

By: The Kobeissi Letter

I had not updated this one in a while, but the NY Fed's "Probability Of A Recession In The Next 12 Months" model pegs the odds of a nasty downturn at 60% (teal line on this chart).

By: Francois Trahan, M2SD

For those with an interest in what's going on in the US economy (everyone!) take a look at the new RSM US recession monitor.

By: Thomas Pugh