Quality of market momentum is improving

Earnings are increasingly driving the market's rally:

The contribution of earnings growth to S&P 500 returns is up to 79% YTD in 2025, on track for the 2nd-consecutive annual increase.

Earnings contribution has increased +24 points YoY and has nearly tripled since 2023.

As a result, the remaining 21% YTD has come from multiple expansion, reflecting higher market valuations.

By comparison, multiple expansion made up 45% and 73% of market gains last year and in 2023.

Put differently, the "quality" of market momentum is improving.

Fundamentals are strong.